Scotland in danger of losing lucky 13th place

By: Ian Rose | August 30th, 2009

Scotland entered six teams into European competition this season – Celtic, Rangers, Aberdeen, Motherwell, Hearts, and Falkirk. After a dismal start that saw Aberdeen dismantled over two legs and Hearts, Falkirk and Motherwell fail to reach the Europa League group stage, it’s down to the Old Firm. As much as our European hopes are often tied to the Glasgow sides, it’s even more true this season.

Last season was one of our worst in Europe in decades, with a total UEFA coefficient of 1.875. In 12 total European matches for Scottish sides last campaign, we managed only a single win, Celtic’s victory over Villarreal in the Champions League group stage. This season has started slightly better, with qualifying wins already coming from Celtic, Hearts, Falkirk and Motherwell. And with a guarantee of 12 more matches to be played (6 each for Celtic and Rangers), we only need a win and a draw to beat last season’s total, so we’ll almost certainly do that.

The problem is what the other leagues around us are doing. If European competition ended today, Scotland would slip from 13th ranked last season to 14th, and Greece is only a few results away from sending us another spot down. For those of you that scoff at UEFA coefficients (I can’t completely disagree), 13th is a very important place. It’s the last place that qualifies directly for the Champions League group stages.

In short, 13th place is worth millions, and there are two leagues (Denmark and Greece) currently threatening to take it from us. As it stands right now, we are 1.325 points behind Denmark for the spot, and only 0.126 points ahead of Greece for even holding onto 14th. If we can’t overtake the Danes, and hold off the Greeks, then in 2011, the Scottish champions will have to play to qualify for the Champions League.

The biggest losers if Scotland misses out on that last group stage place are the two teams with the power to secure it – the Old Firm. Because of the fact that we had six total clubs in Europe this season, each win adds 0.333 to our coefficient (2/6) and each draw adds 0.167 (1/6), with bonuses for qualifying for later rounds. Good luck to Celtic and Rangers – our European futures depend on you.