Old Firm losses jeopardize SPL’s place in Europe
By: Ian Rose | December 12th, 2007The dust is settling from today’s Rangers loss to Lyon, and I’d like to take a moment to reflect on what this means for Scotland. I’m not going to get into reputation or support, but just what it means for the cold, hard numbers, the UEFA coefficients.
Coming into this season, Scotland was the 10th-ranked domestic league in Europe. Basically, this ranking is made up of five years of results in European competition (Champions League and UEFA Cup only). The 2007 rankings (when Scotland was 10th) are used to dole out the European qualification spots for 2008-09. So, next season, as the tenth-ranked league, the SPL will get two Champions League, and two UEFA Cup spots.
If Rangers would have won today, it would have meant three UEFA points for them (2 for a win and 1 for advancement to the knockout rounds), and an additional 0.75 points for Scotland (3 points divided by four total Scottish teams in Europe). This would have been enough to jump over Ukraine and hold onto tenth place. Instead, with no points from Rangers’ last three matches and only the one bonus point from Celtic’s last one, Scotland has slipped to 12th, behind not only Ukraine but also Turkey. Here are the current standings:
9. Netherlands - 36.879 pts - 2 teams still in competition
10. Ukraine - 30.100 pts - 0 teams still in competition
11. Turkey - 29.975 pts - 2 teams still in competition
12. Scotland - 29.625 pts - 3 teams still in competition
13. Czech Republic - 25.500 pts - 2 teams still in competition
As you can see, there is a big gap between Scotland and the #13 Czechs, and so it’s doubtful that we’ll slip any farther, but we’ll need some results to get back up into 10th. If Aberdeen can manage a win at home in the UEFA Cup against Copenhagen, they will earn not only the two points for a win (and half a point for the league) but they will also earn a place in the Round of 32, joining Rangers there, and we’ll still have three teams capable of winning points. That Aberdeen win would also be enough to catapult us over Ukraine, who are done for this year in Europe, and possibly over Turkey, if Galatasaray lose their last UEFA Cup match. After that, it will come down to whether Celtic or Fenerbahce can go further in the Champions League, and whether Rangers/Aberdeen or Galatasaray can do more in the UEFA Cup. Now that the European season is moving into its later stages, every draw and every win is hugely important. So far this season, we’ve already made up almost three points on the Netherlands, and could cut into their lead more. More importantly, we need to take advantage of the failure of the Ukrainian teams in Europe and put some distance between Scotland and Ukraine.
Good luck to Dons … more on their match as it approaches.
Category: Scottish Premier League
Tags: Aberdeen, Celtic, Champions League, Rangers, Scottish Premier League, SPL, Uefa Cup, UEFA League CoefficientSubscribe
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Don’t worry, when Celtic beat there round of 16 opponent, Scotland will get some more UEFA points for the rankings!
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United States
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Hope so, Matt.
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United States -
Am I correct that it’s the 8th place that would grant Scotland two additional UEFA Cup spots? Still some way to go then. What I’m curious is to see whether Romania can hold onto their sixth place (3 CL and 3 UC). Russia is less than a point away and will have one or two teams left in the competition next year, so probably not.
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here’s something that was running through my mind even before i saw this article…
perhaps it would be better for scottish football if the SPL got only ONE CL spot…
why? because scotland is in the predicament of having TWO teams that share a domination more outrageous than that of RFK in norway or cotonsport in cameroon… OL’s 6 paltry titles or the big 4 in england don’t represent a patch on how the old firm has scottish football locked up.
in the last 10 years (and perhaps much longer) only one other team has managed to finish… second!
as long as the queen’s celtic and the pope’s o’rangers keep hogging all the eurololly (a CL run probably brings in more dosh than kilmarnock’s, falkirk’s and gretna’s budgets combined!), that won’t change… at least if there was only one spot they’d have to divvy it up. and unless you fancy motherwell’s chances to make a splash in the CL, fewer spots may be less painful than more.
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Guignol - As Jan pointed out, there’s really no chance of Scotland getting any more CL spots anytime soon. The next step up is an extra two UEFA Cup spots. There is certainly a risk whenever you have more European spots. Because the coefficient points are always divided by the number of teams you have in Europe, it takes a lot more success to earn the same number of points with two more teams. Romania certainly learned that lesson, and they’ll bounce right back down to where they were before, if not lower.
PS - It would be the queen’s rangers and the pope’s o’celtic if anything. Celtic is the traditionally Catholic side, not Rangers.
I don’t fancy Motherwell’s chances in the CL, but they could certainly do well in the UEFA Cup, if they can hold onto Mark McGhee, who is a fantastic manager.
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Jan - to me, eighth is a long term goal for the league. Romania was able to get up there, but not to stay. I’m not thinking about extra slots this year or even next year, just that I’d like the league to maintain or climb for a possible eighth place finish at some point in the future. It should help that we’ve stopped putting our Cup loser into the UEFA Cup - that spot never earned us anything.
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That means overtaking either Russia, Portugal or the Netherlands in the long run (as I guess we all expect Romania to fall down a few places soon), while keeping southern European hopefuls like Turkey and Greece at bay. That’s quite a challenge.
I always enjoy seeing smaller leagues develop and evolve and I wonder which one will have the best long term perspectives. Romania seems to get into trouble once they have more than their three Bucarest based clubs in the competition.Not sure whether this is a big no no for national identity and pride: but what about the idea of a merger with the English Premier Legaue?
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It’s a big no no for more than just pride reasons. First, yeah, Scotland will never allow itself to be merged back with England in terms of sports. It’s enough that there’s no Olympic team, but merging the league and/or the national team, which has also been mentioned, is out of the question. Second, the Premier League would never allow it. They have the money now - why share it with a relatively poor Scottish league? No, if we advance beyond 10th, which I know the realistic chances of, Scotland will have to do it alone. Really, staying in the top 10 is enough for me, with the occasional standout performance, but I would love those two more UEFA Cup spots someday. We’ll see. Russia is up and coming and may have a very bright future, while Holland and Portugal have had a mediocre couple of years, so it’s not completely out of left field to jump over one of them. Greece and Turkey are tough as well, as you say. We can dream.
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If the leagues merged, Celtic and Rangers wouldn’t even be able to land a CL spot given the way the EPL’s top four dominate. They would be fighting for the UEFA Cup every season at best.
This is off topic, but Ian, do you know why Walter Smith kept on going back and forth between the dugout to the stands during Wednesday’s game? Is it something he does frequently, or a one time thing, or is this a Scottish thing (I’ve seen Alex Ferguson do it sometimes). What’s the point of sitting in the stands if you’re the coach?
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Honestly, Inara, I’m not sure what that’s about. I’ve seen a few coaches do it, and I’ve never understood why.
You’re right about the top four, probably. I think Celtic and Rangers would be challengers for the UEFA Cup every season, and the CL in their better years. If they were getting a piece of the EPL pie, they’d be very rich clubs. Very few of the EPL clubs get a weekly attendance like the Old Firm, and along with the TV money, things would change a bit. Still, the SPL isn’t going anywhere. The EPL doesn’t want Scottish teams and the vast majority of Scots don’t want their league eaten up by the neighbors to the south.
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