Three to go: Preview of Scotland v. Ukraine

By: Ian Rose | October 12th, 2007

For the first time in a long time, everyone is talking about Scottish football. As far as the national team goes, that newfound respect basically comes down to the wins over France. Despite being on top of Euro 2008 qualifying Group B by a point over Italy and 2 points over France with three games remaining, Scotland is still in a very fragile situation. Of the three remaining matches, our position in the table makes it seem like November 17th against Italy is the only challenge. But anyone who has been a fan of Scottish football for more than a few years knows our history of following big wins with mediocre losses and draws. Manager Alex McLeish denies that Saturday’s home match against Ukraine is a must-win, but I see it differently than Big Eck on this occasion. We need seven points in three matches to be assured of qualifying, since a tie with France on points would put Scotland ahead. That’s two wins and a draw. Do we really want to go into the Italy match needing a win, especially if Italy doesn’t? I don’t think so. Let’s take it one match at a time. First up: Ukraine.

Ukraine comes to Hampden Park with a team that should be familiar to most of the Scottish side. Five of the visiting players were on the pitch for Shakhtar Donetsk when they handed Celtic a 2-0 defeat in the Champions League last month, though both of the goal scorers were non-Ukrainians. Five more come from Dnipro, the team that Aberdeen kicked out of the UEFA Cup. One important player we haven’t seen in a while, though, is Andriy Shevchenko. McLeish has clearly identified Sheva as the danger man for Ukraine, even though his only goal against us in recent years was a penalty, and despite his relatively poor form for Chelsea. His goal scoring might have run a bit dry in England, but he has been active internationally, with goals against Italy and Georgia. Eck is right to put a close eye on him, but there are other big guns for Ukraine that might be more dangerous. Andriy Voronin is on great form domestically, and may present more of a challenge than Sheva. Completing the all-Andriy front line is Dnipro forward Andriy Vorobei.

The last time we faced Ukraine, Scotland was a heavy underdog. Ukraine, after all, was coming off of a quarterfinal performance at last year’s World Cup, and seemed to be the third team in a group of death that would almost certainly be dominated by France and Italy. They played up to expectations, beating Scotland 2-0 in Kiev on October 11th of last year. It would be a huge understatement to say that things have changed since then. A disappointing draw with Georgia, along with losses to France and Italy, have put Ukraine in fourth place and a game away from elimination. If they lose to Scotland, all hope of qualification is over. Even if they win, they go on to face France in November, in another must-win. They are effectively dead in this competition, but they will be no less anxious to spoil it for Scotland, and claim a scalp before the end of the campaign. They also have some extra motivation, after head coach Oleg Blokhin suggested he might move on if the team loses to Scotland.

Scotland finds itself in a bit of injury trouble, with Darren Fletcher, Gary Caldwell and Paul Hartley all out for the match. Rangers keeper Allan McGregor has also pulled out, putting Aberdeen’s Jamie Langfield into the substitute keeper spot behind Craig Gordon, though that shouldn’t factor into the game, as Gordon has been solid all campaign long. The Scots are a little depleted defensively, which might be a problem against a possible three-striker attack from the desperate Ukrainians. There is still strength in the back line, though, with the always tough trio of David Weir, Steven McManus and Allan Hutton possibly taking on a new partner in returning veteran Christian Dailly. The attack of the visitors should work well with McLeish’s style of counterattacking, and there’s always an advantage to hosting a match that the visitors need to win (slightly) more than you do.

My pick: 3-1 to the home team, and three of the seven necessary points to Scotland.

I’ll be watching, boys. Continue to make me proud.

Alba Gu Brath!