Last season was one of our worst in Europe in decades, with a total UEFA coefficient of 1.875. In 12 total European matches for Scottish sides last campaign, we managed only a single win, Celtic’s victory over Villarreal in the Champions League group stage. This season has started slightly better, with qualifying wins already coming from Celtic, Hearts, Falkirk and Motherwell. And with a guarantee of 12 more matches to be played (6 each for Celtic and Rangers), we only need a win and a draw to beat last season’s total, so we’ll almost certainly do that.

The problem is what the other leagues around us are doing. If European competition ended today, Scotland would slip from 13th ranked last season to 14th, and Greece is only a few results away from sending us another spot down. For those of you that scoff at UEFA coefficients (I can’t completely disagree), 13th is a very important place. It’s the last place that qualifies directly for the Champions League group stages.

In short, 13th place is worth millions, and there are two leagues (Denmark and Greece) currently threatening to take it from us. As it stands right now, we are 1.325 points behind Denmark for the spot, and only 0.126 points ahead of Greece for even holding onto 14th. If we can’t overtake the Danes, and hold off the Greeks, then in 2011, the Scottish champions will have to play to qualify for the Champions League.

The biggest losers if Scotland misses out on that last group stage place are the two teams with the power to secure it – the Old Firm. Because of the fact that we had six total clubs in Europe this season, each win adds 0.333 to our coefficient (2/6) and each draw adds 0.167 (1/6), with bonuses for qualifying for later rounds. Good luck to Celtic and Rangers – our European futures depend on you.

Our Europa League sides have a much steeper road. Motherwell are down 3-0 to Steaua Bucharest and on their way back to Excelsior Stadium, not even truly home. Last round, they were down a goal and came back huge, putting eight past Albanian side Flamurtari. But Flamurtari are not on the same planet as Steaua. Currently ranked 32nd in Europe by UEFA coefficient, they were UEFA Cup semifinalists four years ago and have a trophy case bursting with 23 league titles and 25 domestic cups, not to mention the 1986 European Cup. 3-0 is Everest. Not to say it can’t be done, just that it would be a moment for the Motherwell history books if it is.

Aberdeen, of course, has no such hopes. After dropping their home leg 5-1, they stand basically no chance of a comeback. No Scottish side has ever recovered from four down in Europe, and with the injuries plaguing the Dons, you can’t believe this is the one to do it.

I have a soft spot for both Motherwell and Aberdeen, especially now that my own favorite side isn’t competing with them in the top flight, but it’s hard to see the way back for either. On the bright side, in terms of league coefficient, Aberdeen might well win by one or two goals in the return leg. It will do them no good, but we’ll take the points.

Good luck to both sides. If you’re going down, go down swinging.

Ouch. Three matches this week, all against Eastern European opposition, and three losses, only one of them close. Celtic conceded a very unfortunate early goal to Dinamo Moscow that turned out to the only one of the match. But I never would have thought that after the two Europa League matches, I’d be looking to Celtic as the best chance for moving on. After watching Aberdeen leak five goals at home, and Motherwell concede 3 unanswered on the road, though, things look positively rosy in comparison for the Hoops.

That’s three matches, three losses. 9 goals conceded, only one scored. Pathetic. Motherwell has an outside chance at a comeback, but was frankly from all accounts worse than the 3-0 scoreline would indicate. Aberdeen, down 5-1 and 5 away goals, is done. Celtic are a single bulged net away from a whole new ballgame, but that goal has to be scored in Moscow.

Welcome back to reality, SPL fans. This is the state of our league.

Those same Bairns started their European season today, playing host to the mighty Liechtensteiners from Vaduz. In what has to be considered a pretty disappointing result for them, Falkirk only managed a home leg win by 1-0, on a 51st minute goal from Liverpool loanee Ryan Flynn.

Okay, I know I said I’d try to be nice to Falkirk, but this was not only a home European match against a team from Liechtenstein. That alone should put a few goals on the board. This was a match against a team that was RELEGATED in Liechtenstein last season. The Bairns should have done better, especially since early on in the match, they were in real danger of conceding. Let’s hope on the away leg, they can stand up a bit more for the league, because they’re not likely to find an easier chance for goals in Europe.

That being said, at least they came away with the win. Motherwell faced a noticeably harder mission, traveling to Albania to face Flamurtari. Like their first qualifying round, this second one started out with a bit of a whimper, going down 1-0 and needing goals in the second leg to proceed. But 1-0 away is never a terrible result, and they’re one home goal from an even keel.

Scotland now has two more UEFA/Europa/etc wins than we had last season, and Falkirk’s victory raises them to tie Motherwell as the 181st-ranked club in Europe, according to UEFA coefficients. Only Hibs (177) Hearts(162), Aberdeen(121) and the Old Firm (50 and 19) rank higher in Scotland. So they have that going for them, which is nice.

Next up for the Well: Albanian side Flamurtari Vlore, which I’m just going to assume is Albanian for “The Flame-Retardant Velour” because that’s what it sounds like and that’s how I translate languages. The one-time (1991) champions of the Albanian superliga are actually the most successful Albanian club in Europe, and not to be taken lightly.

On July 16th and 23rd (happy birthday to me), Motherwell will take on Vlore, and Falkirk will start their European campaign against the pride of Liechtenstein, Vaduz. If Scotland doesn’t put someone into the third qualifying round, we are truly in a sad, sad state of affairs.

Good luck to Motherwell. I don’t support your club, but today, you represent the country, and so today I’m a Steelman. Go get em.

David Clarkson, nephew of fallen former Motherwell captain Phil O’Donnell, had a breakout season last year, helping Motherwell into Europe with 13 goals, and doing his part for country as well. He scored the only Scotland goal in his debut match, a friendly against the Czech Republic. He has matured from a promising young talent for the future into a real and present threat for any opposing defense, netting three times in Motherwell’s first five matches including one against Celtic this weekend. On the opening day of the season, when the Well traveled to Tynecastle to take on Hearts, he scored two, doing more than his share in what had to be a very disappointing 3-2 loss.

Looking at the league table, one might be surprised to hear that the only SPL team with two three-goal scorers so far is Motherwell. The other besides Clarkson is John Sutton, who has been far and away the most important offensive weapon for Motherwell so far. I say most important because aside from his consolation goal against Celtic on Saturday, both of his other goals this season have translated directly into points for his club. Before the international break, he scored late to take an important 1-0 win away at Hibernian. The week before that, he scored the only Motherwell goal in a 1-1 draw at home with Dundee United. He has been clutch, and the Well will need him to continue that trend if they want to advance in Europe.

Between the two, Nancy will have two real goalscoring strikers to deal with. There’s no question that the Motherwell defense is suspect (3 goals to Hearts, 4 to Celtic), but up front, there’s a lot to be hopeful about.

In 1972, and again in 1983, SPL sides raised the old Cup Winners’ Cup. I know I’ve said this before, and maybe I should just let it go and move on, but I really miss this competition. I’d trade the Intertoto Cup to have it back in a second, but it looks like only half of that wish is coming true. And of course, in 1967, Celtic made what still remains one of the great runs in European football, beating Inter Milan to become the first British team to lift the European Cup, as well as the only side (still true today) to do it with a team made up completely of domestic players.

But a Scottish side has never lifted the UEFA Cup, the second greatest club prize in Europe. Celtic got close, so close, in 2003, as they took Jose Mourinho’s Porto to extra time in the final. Now, bitter rivals Rangers have a chance to go one better, and complete the European Cup – Cup Winners Cup – UEFA Cup trifecta that only Italy, Spain, England, Holland, Germany and Portugal have managed before.

Good luck to Rangers. You’re out there representing Scotland tomorrow, so try to show a little more attacking spirit than in recent European matches. And just as importantly, bring home that cup. Scotland deserves to be on that list.